A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
